Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system.

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1-3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

The application of a multi-component reaction peptide as a model regenerative active to enhance skin wound-healing postlaser procedure in a double-blinded placebo-controlled clinical trial.

INTRODUCTION: Esthetic procedures are currently among the most effective options for consumers seeking to correct aging signs such as fine lines, wrinkles, and skin tone unevenness. Currently, there is a scientific need for an adjunct active to be paired with esthetic procedures to encourage wound recovery and address postprocedure pigmentation concerns. OBJECTIVE: Toward that goal, this study assessed the efficacy of a peptide created from a multi-component reaction (multi-component peptide, MCP) as a model active for postprocedure care and evaluated its ability to promote skin healing in an ablative laser-induced wound model on the forearm. METHODS: The mechanism of action of MCP was investigated using tubo assays, 2D melanocyte, and fibroblast cultures, reconstructed skin equivalents, and ex vivo skin explants. The MCP formula and the clinical benchmark formula of Aquaphor were assessed head-to-head by applying the products topically in an ablative laser-induced wound model (n = 20 subjects). The promotion of wound healing was evaluated by the investigator assessment of epithelial confluence, crusting or scabbing, general wound appearance, erythema, and edema. RESULTS: MCP was determined to be beneficial to postprocedure skin recovery and healing by four main mechanisms of action: barrier repair as determined in an ex vivo tape-stripping model, reduction of inflammation and postinflammatory hyperpigmentation, reduction of elastase activity, and stimulation of fibroblast through the mTOR pathway. The formula containing 10% MCP enhanced the kinetics of epithelial confluence and improvement of the crusting or scabbing appearance of the laser-generated wounds in a laser-induced mini-zone wound healing study on the forearm. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the use of MCP as a proof of concept regenerative active that when incorporated into an optimized postprocedure skincare formula can improve skin healing and enhance the appearance of skin after injury with relevance to ablative aesthetic procedures.

Simulating carbon accumulation and loss in the central Congo peatlands.

Peatlands of the central Congo Basin have accumulated carbon over millennia. They currently store some 29 billion tonnes of carbon in peat. However, our understanding of the controls on peat carbon accumulation and loss and the vulnerability of this stored carbon to climate change is in its infancy. Here we present a new model of tropical peatland development, DigiBog_Congo, that we use to simulate peat carbon accumulation and loss in a rain-fed interfluvial peatland that began forming ~20,000 calendar years Before Present (cal. yr BP, where 'present' is 1950 CE). Overall, the simulated age-depth curve is in good agreement with palaeoenvironmental reconstructions derived from a peat core at the same location as our model simulation. We find two key controls on long-term peat accumulation: water at the peat surface (surface wetness) and the very slow anoxic decay of recalcitrant material. Our main simulation shows that between the Late Glacial and early Holocene there were several multidecadal periods where net peat and carbon gain alternated with net loss. Later, a climatic dry phase beginning ~5200 cal. yr BP caused the peatland to become a long-term carbon source from ~3975 to 900 cal. yr BP. Peat as old as ~7000 cal. yr BP was decomposed before the peatland's surface became wetter again, suggesting that changes in rainfall alone were sufficient to cause a catastrophic loss of peat carbon lasting thousands of years. During this time, 6.4 m of the column of peat was lost, resulting in 57% of the simulated carbon stock being released. Our study provides an approach to understanding the future impact of climate change and potential land-use change on this vulnerable store of carbon.

Impacts on South America moisture transport under Amazon deforestation and 2 °C global warming.

The increase in greenhouse gasses (GHG) anthropogenic emissions and deforestation over the last decades have led to many chemical and physical changes in the climate system, affecting the atmosphere's energy and water balance. A process that could be affected is the Amazonian moisture transport in the South American continent (including La Plata basin), which is crucial to the southeast Brazilian water regime. The focus of our research is on evaluating how local (i.e. Amazon deforestation) and global forcings (increase of atmospheric GHG concentration) may modify this moisture transport under climate change scenarios. We used two coupled land-atmosphere models forced by CMIP6 sea surface temperatures to simulate these processes for two scenarios: i) increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) - RCP8.5 atmospheric levels (00DEF), and ii) total Amazon deforestation simultaneous with atmospheric CO2 levels increased (100DEF). These scenarios were compared with a control simulation, set with a constant CO2 of 388 ppm and present-day Amazon Forest cover. The 30-year Specific Warming Level 2 (SWL2) index evaluated from the simulations is set to be reached 2 years earlier due to Amazon deforestation. A reduction in precipitation was observed in the Amazon basin (-3.1 mm·day-1) as well as in La Plata Basin (-0.5 mm·day-1) due to reductions in the Amazon evapotranspiration (-0.9 mm·day-1) through a stomatal conductance decrease (00DEF) and land cover change (100DEF). In addition, the income moisture transport decreased (22 %) in the northern La Plata basin in both scenarios and model experiments. Our results indicated a worse scenario than previously found in the region. Both Amazon and La Plata hydrological regimes are connected (moisture and energy transport), indicating that a large-scale Amazon deforestation will have additional climate, economic and social implications for South America.

Modelling the impact of forest management and CO2-fertilisation on growth and demography in a Sitka spruce plantation.

Afforestation and reforestation to meet 'Net Zero' emissions targets are considered a necessary policy by many countries. Their potential benefits are usually assessed through forest carbon and growth models. The implementation of vegetation demography gives scope to represent forest management and other size-dependent processes within land surface models (LSMs). In this paper, we evaluate the impact of including management within an LSM that represents demography, using both in-situ and reanalysis climate drivers at a mature, upland Sitka spruce plantation in Northumberland, UK. We compare historical simulations with fixed and variable CO2 concentrations, and with and without tree thinning implemented. Simulations are evaluated against the observed vegetation structure and carbon fluxes. Including thinning and the impact of increasing CO2 concentration ('CO2 fertilisation') gave more realistic estimates of stand-structure and physical characteristics. Historical CO2 fertilisation had a noticeable effect on the Gross Primary Productivity seasonal-diurnal cycle and contributed to approximately 7% higher stand biomass by 2018. The net effect of both processes resulted in a decrease of tree density and biomass, but an increase in tree height and leaf area index.

Skin microbiome differentiates into distinct cutotypes with unique metabolic functions upon exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

BACKGROUND: The effects of air pollutants, particularly polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), on the skin microbiome remain poorly understood. Thus, to better understand the interplay between air pollutants, microbiomes, and skin conditions, we applied metagenomics and metabolomics to analyze the effects of PAHs in air pollution on the skin microbiomes of over 120 subjects residing in two cities in China with different levels of air pollution. RESULTS: The skin microbiomes differentiated into two cutotypes (termed 1 and 2) with distinct taxonomic, functional, resistome, and metabolite compositions as well as skin phenotypes that transcended geography and host factors. High PAH exposure was linked to dry skin and cutotype 2, which was enriched with species with potential biodegradation functions and had reduced correlation network structure integrity. The positive correlations identified between dominant taxa, key functional genes, and metabolites in the arginine biosynthesis pathway in cutotype 1 suggest that arginine from bacteria contributes to the synthesis of filaggrin-derived natural moisturizing factors (NMFs), which provide hydration for the skin, and could explain the normal skin phenotype observed. In contrast, no correlation with the arginine biosynthesis pathway was observed in cutotype 2, which indicates the limited hydration functions of NMFs and explains the observed dry skin phenotype. In addition to dryness, skin associated with cutotype 2 appeared prone to other adverse conditions such as inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed the roles of PAHs in driving skin microbiome differentiation into cutotypes that vary extensively in taxonomy and metabolic functions and may subsequently lead to variations in skin-microbe interactions that affect host skin health. An improved understanding of the roles of microbiomes on skin exposed to air pollutants can aid the development of strategies that harness microbes to prevent undesirable skin conditions. Video Abstract.

Photo-aging evaluation - In vitro biological endpoints combined with collagen density assessment with multi-photon microscopy.

BACKGROUND: Ultraviolet exposure has profound effect on the dermal connective tissue of human skin. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop and validate an evaluation method/methodology using a full-thickness reconstructed skin model, to assess the anti-photoaging efficacy of cosmetic ingredients and sunscreen formulas by blending multi relevant biological endpoints including the newly developed dermal collagen quantification method with Multi-photon microscopy. METHODS: The response of ex vivo human skin to UVA exposure was first characterized with multiphoton microscopy. Reconstructed full-thickness skin models was then used to reproduce the data and to create a proof-of-concept study by treating the models with sunscreen prototypes A or B, which differ on their UVA absorption properties, and systemic Vitamin C (Vit C). After exposure to UVA, the collagen density was quantified via multiphoton microscopy with automatic imaging processing. Histology, fibroblasts number, metalloprotease 1 (MMP1) secretion were also assessed. RESULTS: UVA exposure induced pronounced reduction in collagen density and increased MMP1 secretion within both ex vivo human skin and reconstructed skin. Histological damage and fibroblast disappearance was observed with reconstructed skin. Within the proof-of-concept study prototype B, possessing higher UVA filtration, gave better protection than prototype A on the UV associated biological markers, and association with Vit C boosted sunscreen formula efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: The photoaging evaluation method, consists of multi biological markers as well as dermal collagen quantification, is a relevant mean to assess the pre-clinical efficacy of anti-photoaging ingredients and sunscreen products. This approach is also beneficial for evaluating the efficacy of sunscreens and photoprotective ingredients.

Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour.

The 880 million agricultural workers of the world are especially vulnerable to increasing heat stress due to climate change, affecting the health of individuals and reducing labour productivity. In this study, we focus on rice harvests across Asia and estimate the future impact on labour productivity by considering changes in climate at the time of the annual harvest. During these specific times of the year, heat stress is often high compared to the rest of the year. Examining climate simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), we identified that labour productivity metrics for the rice harvest, based on local wet-bulb globe temperature, are strongly correlated with global mean near-surface air temperature in the long term (p ≪ 0.01, R 2 > 0.98 in all models). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C prevents a clear reduction in labour capacity of 1% across all Asia and 2% across Southeast Asia, affecting the livelihoods of around 100 million people. Due to differences in mechanization between and within countries, we find that rice labour is especially vulnerable in Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and the Indian states of West Bengal and Kerala. Our results highlight the regional disparities and importance in considering seasonal differences in the estimation of the effect of climate change on labour productivity and occupational heat-stress.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons regulate the pigmentation pathway and induce DNA damage responses in keratinocytes, a process driven by systemic immunity.

BACKGROUND: Urban pollution is correlated with an increased prevalence of skin pigmentation disorders, however the physiological processes underlying this association are unclear. OBJECTIVES: To delineate the relationship between polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), a key constituent of atmospheric pollution, and immunity/skin pigmentation pathways. METHODS: We exposed peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) to PAHs and performed cytokines/chemokine profiling. We then examined the effect of immune activation on pigmentation by co-culturing PBMC and Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) with reconstructed human pigmented epidermis (RHPE). To study the mechanism, we treated keratinocytes with conditioned medium from BaP-exposed PBMC and studied DNA damage responses, aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) activation and pro-pigmentation factor, proopiomelanocortin (POMC) secretion. RESULTS: PAHs induced up-regulation of inflammatory cytokines/chemokine in PBMC. Co-culturing of RHPE with PBMC+BaP resulted in increased melanin content and localization. BaP-conditioned medium significantly increased DNA damage, p53 stabilization, AhR activation and POMC secretion in keratinocytes. We found that IFNγ induced DNA damage, while TNFα and IL-8 potentiated POMC secretion in keratinocytes. Importantly, BaP-conditioned medium-induced DNA damage and POMC secretion is prevented by antioxidants vitamin E, vitamin C and sulforaphane, as well as the prototypical corticosteroid dexamethasone. Finally, vitamin C and sulforaphane enhanced the genome protective and depigmentation effects of dexamethasone, providing proof-of-concept for a combinatorial approach for the prevention and/or correction of PAH-induced pigment spots formation. CONCLUSION: Our study reveals the importance of systemic immunity in regulating PAH-induced skin pigmentation, and provide a new keratinocyte DNA damage response mechanistic target for the prevention or reversal of pollution-associated skin pigmentation.

Glycosaminoglycans: Sweet as Sugar Targets for Topical Skin Anti-Aging.

Glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) are long, linear polysaccharides comprised of repeating disaccharide units with pleiotropic biological functions, with the non-sulfated GAG hyaluronic acid (HA), and sulfated GAGs dermatan sulfate, chondroitin sulfate, heparan sulfate, keratan sulfate, and to a lesser extent heparin all being expressed in skin. Their ability to regulate keratinocyte proliferation and differentiation, inflammatory processes and extracellular matrix composition and quality demonstrates their critical role in regulating skin physiology. Similarly, the water-binding properties of GAGs and structural qualities, particularly for HA, are crucial for maintaining proper skin form and hydration. The biological importance of GAGs, as well as extensive evidence that their properties and functions are altered in both chronological and extrinsic skin aging, makes them highly promising targets to improve cosmetic skin quality. Within the present review, we examine the cutaneous biological activity of GAGs alongside the protein complexes they form called proteoglycans and summarize the age-related changes of these molecules in skin. We also examine current topical interventional approaches to modulate GAGs for improved skin quality such as direct exogenous administration of GAGs, with a particular interest in strategies targeted at potentiating GAG levels in skin through either attenuating GAG degradation or increasing GAG production.

Changes of the human skin microbiota upon chronic exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pollutants.

BACKGROUND: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are of environmental and public health concerns and contribute to adverse skin attributes such as premature skin aging and pigmentary disorder. However, little information is available on the potential roles of chronic urban PAH pollutant exposure on the cutaneous microbiota. Given the roles of the skin microbiota have on healthy and undesirable skin phenotypes and the relationships between PAHs and skin properties, we hypothesize that exposure of PAHs may be associated with changes in the cutaneous microbiota. In this study, the skin microbiota of over two hundred Chinese individuals from two cities in China with varying exposure levels of PAHs were characterized by bacterial and fungal amplicon and shotgun metagenomics sequencing. RESULTS: Skin site and city were strong parameters in changing microbial communities and their assembly processes. Reductions of bacterial-fungal microbial network structural integrity and stability were associated with skin conditions (acne and dandruff). Multivariate analysis revealed associations between abundances of Propionibacterium and Malassezia with host properties and pollutant exposure levels. Shannon diversity increase was correlated to exposure levels of PAHs in a dose-dependent manner. Shotgun metagenomics analysis of samples (n = 32) from individuals of the lowest and highest exposure levels of PAHs further highlighted associations between the PAHs quantified and decrease in abundances of skin commensals and increase in oral bacteria. Functional analysis identified associations between levels of PAHs and abundance of microbial genes of metabolic and other pathways with potential importance in host-microbe interactions as well as degradation of aromatic compounds. CONCLUSIONS: The results in this study demonstrated the changes in composition and functional capacities of the cutaneous microbiota associated with chronic exposure levels of PAHs. Findings from this study will aid the development of strategies to harness the microbiota in protecting the skin against pollutants. Video Abstract.

A successful prediction of the record CO2 rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño.

In early 2016, we predicted that the annual rise in carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa would be the largest on record. Our forecast used a statistical relationship between observed and forecast sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region and the annual CO2 rise. Here, we provide a formal verification of that forecast. The observed rise of 3.4 ppm relative to 2015 was within the forecast range of 3.15 ± 0.53 ppm, so the prediction was successful. A global terrestrial biosphere model supports the expectation that the El Niño weakened the tropical land carbon sink. We estimate that the El Niño contributed approximately 25% to the record rise in CO2, with 75% due to anthropogenic emissions. The 2015/2016 CO2 rise was greater than that following the previous large El Niño in 1997/1998, because anthropogenic emissions had increased. We had also correctly predicted that 2016 would be the first year with monthly mean CO2 above 400 ppm all year round. We now estimate that atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa would have remained above 400 ppm all year round in 2016 even if the El Niño had not occurred, contrary to our previous expectations based on a simple extrapolation of previous trends.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.

A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Contact sensitizers trigger human CD1-autoreactive T-cell responses.

Allergic contact dermatitis is a primarily T-cell-mediated inflammatory skin disease induced by exposure to small molecular-weight haptens, which covalently bind to proteins. The abundance of cutaneous T cells that recognize CD1a antigen-presenting molecules raises the possibility that MHC-independent antigen presentation may be relevant in some hapten-driven immune responses. Here we examine the ability of contact sensitizers to influence CD1-restricted immunity. Exposure of human antigen-presenting cells such as monocyte-derived dendritic cells and THP-1 cells to the prototypical contact sensitizer dinitrochlorobenzene potentiated the response of CD1a- and CD1d-autoreactive T cells, which released a vast array of cytokines in a CD1- and TCR-dependent manner. The potentiating effects of dinitrochlorobenzene depended upon newly synthesized CD1 molecules and the presence of endogenous stimulatory lipids. Further examination of a broad panel of contact sensitizers revealed 1,4-benzoquinone, resorcinol, isoeugenol, and cinnamaldehyde to activate the same type of CD1-restricted responses. These findings provide a basis for the antigen-specific activation of skin-associated CD1-restricted T cells by small molecules and may have implications for contact sensitizer-induced inflammatory skin diseases.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.